This website uses cookies. By using and further navigating this website, you accept this.
Dismiss
Did you know that FlightAware flight tracking is supported by advertising?
You can help us keep FlightAware free by allowing ads from FlightAware.com. We work hard to keep our advertising relevant and unobtrusive to create a great experience. It's quick and easy to whitelist ads on FlightAware or please consider our premium accounts.
Dismiss
Back to Squawk list
  • 33

Airbus commits to new A380

Submitted
The boss of Airbus has ended months of speculation by confirming that the plane maker will build a new version of its superjumbo, the A380. (www.thesundaytimes.co.uk) More...

Sort type: [Top] [Newest]


zcolescott
Out of curiosity, has Airbus hit the break even mark for the A380 yet, in terms of aircraft ordered (or paid for)?
nicholasweber
Once all the 747's are retired they will. BA currently runs the oldest 747 fleet. They have only just started phasing out their decrepit 737's some of which are at least 25 years in service.
skylab72
skylab72 2
Nope. 300 acft+/- should be near, but this puppy cost two boat loads to develop... A couple more Billion Euro over the next decade and they may not make money until total acft in the air approaches a thousand. Boeing is chuckling as they ponder wing upgrades for new 747s.
preacher1
preacher1 1
Last figures I saw in the early days of this mess was that they would at some point and make a profit on orders that were on the books. That is one reason they were so concerned about no orders for this sales year, in order to make some serious money. They will have to do a lot more that the 100 units that Emirates says they'll take for a new model but I would hate to know that I had 100 units riding just on Clark's say so, as flakey as he is.
preacher1
preacher1 2
Just betting on future sales, did Clarke put some skin in the game or do we just have a make work thing here to keep a production line open?
TorstenHoff
Torsten Hoff 1
Didn't Clark commit to buying over 100 A380 Neos if Airbus decided to build it? At a unit price approaching half a billion dollars each, that's one heck of an incentive.
williambaker08
william baker 4
Yes but you have to think if one Airline is the only airline committed how do you know they wont say at the last minute that hey wait we don't want the aircraft. Also only 100 planes is going to put Airbus in the whole because they would have to sell around 500 just to make it worth there wild to upgrade the plane. Just like when you build a new plane all the money that goes into developing it and building it. It would take 700-800 planes in a order book just to make a profit. Is it really worth Airbuses time to lose more money to build a plane only one airline wants.
preacher1
preacher1 1
Well, in all probability, if Emirates does opt for 100, some of the others around the world will upgrade too, but as I said below, Emirates talks a lot and until some money goes down, i'd be worried.
preacher1
preacher1 1
Yeah he said that, but he talks a lot. They can do what they want as far as the upgrade but until Emirates or somebody put up some money, I don't think its a safe bet.
williambaker08
william baker 1
You are going to need more then one airline in the running for this plane for it to even be considered a safe bet. Emirates has a habit of waiting till almost end before they cancel orders. Take the A350 they waiting till it was built and almost ready to be built for them and say sorry we don't want the plane. I keep saying it the Emiratesliner needs to be ended by Airbus. They are just going to go broke on this plane. They only way they are going to make any money is by maybe making it a twin jet but that wont happen because they engines aren't powerful enough.
preacher1
preacher1 2
Nah, nothing big enough or even on the drawing board to make a twin out of it. You are correct about needing more than one airline. I'm just saying, for that very reason of last minute cancellation, that if Clarke doesn't put some money in the game, Airbus will be left holding the bag and we'll have one big make work project again.
jbqwik
jbqwik 1
Reading the link skylab72 provided puts a different spin, makes me think this is far from a done deal. Bregier talks about a refresh, and mentions a "light stretch" as a possibility. Yeah, we've heard that before.
Clark has been pushing like mad for an A380NEO, which other airlines *maybe* would buy into. It's far easier to re-engine than do a stretch. You have to think about timeline: Engines are basically ready now, a stretch takes time and buku bucks.
preacher1
preacher1 1
IDK, I was reading one of heir earlier posts and in it, they said that the design work for a stretch was already done, that it all wouldn't be that big of a deal, just whether or not the money (orders) were there.
AmericaWest90
West Kane 1
EK recently cancelled it's orders for the remaining A388's and is currently looking into 787's...
williambaker08
william baker 2
Where did you hear that?? I know they canceled there a350 order but nothing about the a388 order
andyc852
If there is little or no secondary market for the used A380s the overall cost of operation will be too high. This mixed with a 4 engine airplane and uncertain fuel costs make it a shaky proposition at best Emirates can behave as they do (I do not condone this) with canceling orders simply because of their size and mass in the market. They run a young fleet and I believe that is a part of their success.
preacher1
preacher1 1
At the very best, the 380 would be a hub to hub thing and as mzscapes says below, that was worked over at FedEx and things are going in the other direction. It will be interesting.
jbqwik
jbqwik 1
I hear you preacher1 but man you gotta look at all the waffling - AB has been all over on this. It's got to be tough because, the ain't even about to break even on the original 380, and now you wanna do a new plane? (a stretch, by an name you wanna call it, is almost a new plane)
OTOH, the NEO option would partially satisfy Clark (you can't ignore this guy) and be doable.
preacher1
preacher1 2
Well, what I saw awhile back, they could break even and make a little money on what they had on the books. I forget how many units they had there but it was enough. While it did not say, I am sure a bunch of those were for emirates. How many of those they will take delivery on and how many they will cancel on this new one is the big question, and no, I would not want to be in Airbus's shoes right now. That is a bunch of dollars.
canuck44
canuck44 1
One has to wonder what the market saturation point is given the restricted use for the aircraft and the erosion of the market by the 787 and the A350 bypassing the major hubs. If Emirates were to buy 100, how many of their current fleet will end up in the secondary market further eroding the primary sales.
mzscapes
mzscapes 2
Is there a secondary market for A380s ??? Will there be one ??? The era of 4 engine aircraft is over, time for Airbus and Boeing to cut the losses...
preacher1
preacher1 2
There may be a small secondary market on some freighters on real dense routes if the airport is qualified. The thing that keeps them out of a lot of places is needing that 200'width. The have a longer engine overhang and need that extra width to keep the FOD away. It doesn't have to be weight bearing but it can be expensive and you know dang well that if it is there, somebody will try and use it, regardless. FedEx almost gave them a buy order a few years back but then looked at the cost of redoing their terminals plus MEM said they would not add that 50'. They said that they would handle all the paperwork and approval but FedEx had to put up the bucks. All of a sudden them 777's looked beautiful.
mzscapes
mzscapes 1
Having been at FedEx during that period, I can tell you the decision to drop the A380 was driven by market forces and the de-centralization of the network. Unfortunately, the same reasoning that was used to add the DC10 to reduce wingtip-to-wingtip flying (b727s trans atlantic and domestically) was applied for the a380 project. A model long past. You are absolutely right about gate footprints, however an express network needs to have the shortest market-to-market connections and the a380 is a hub-2-hub aircraft and nothing more. It was at that time that FedEx was moving away from a single regional hub (Cdg in Europe for example) to multiple hubs (Cgn) in order to compete and have the fastest-to-market product flow. The a380 was not suited for that role and thus the b777 and Boeing was brought back into the fleet plan for FedEx. Just look at Asia now and the direct flying to Mem vs via Anc or Oak and you see the results of de-centralization. A few other strikes. 1.payload over long-hauls, 2.turn times (more important as you tighten network flying), 3.all new ground support equipment (with some scary looking upper deck loaders) and most important of all, 4.recoverability of an out-of-service unit.
preacher1
preacher1 1
Hub to hub and recovery would be scary. Emirates had to build totally new and special facilities for theirs at Dubai. I was really beginning to wonder if they were ever going to get GSO on line as much trouble as the local folks were giving them. Were you there then? It is good to get some skinney on what actually went down over there as so much crap was hitting the street about that time.
preacher1
preacher1 1
Talking about market and you mentioned Oakland. I can sit here in Western AR and watch several waves out of MEM in that direction whereas in years past a wave a little after 4am was it.
mzscapes
mzscapes 1
Day flying has increased over the years with the Usps contract, shift of priority to deferred service and an increase in online shipping.
preacher1
preacher1 1
I didn't know they had the USPS contract. I knew that USPS ran their own air at Christmas each year as they had a break above you at the old Eaker AFB at Blytheville AR but I knew they had not done that in the past few years.
williambaker08
william baker 1
They have had the USPS contract for many of years. They also ship Usps express overnight packages.
jbqwik
jbqwik 1
Must have been an interesting discussion at the decision point.
elcockm
elcockm 1
if it is bigger which airport will it go to because that means that the airports have to get bigger
preacher1
preacher1 1
It can't go to all of them now and I think that is a problem on sales. Even stretching, it should be able to keep those same ones.
jbqwik
jbqwik 1
This has been a conundrum for AB. It does seem to appear they caved, and, surely this is rife with nuance and inflection points. My guess is AB is hoping to do a 'cheap' stretch that will pacify the customer, and willing to show little or no on-paper profit. There are so many intangibles here.. must be a damnable situation to be in.
AmericaWest90
West Kane 1
I live an hour from the Boeing factories and I hear whispers from Boeing workers who live nearby and as far as I know the talks are for 25 or more 788's.
skylab72
skylab72 1
A stretch A380? it boggles the mind...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-19/airbus-ceo-says-a380-to-be-refreshed-no-decision-on-new-engines
bkirby
Brad Kirby -7
Once again scarebus is wanting to build a plane that only one airline really wants..and all the others know two engines are where the world is headed. I would not ride on that plane if the tickets were free...Airbus never builds good looking planes... it was a mistake from the beginning and maybe it will be the end of a piss poor company.
redrattler47
Ian Deans 2
Ridiculous statement Brad.
MultiComm
MultiComm 1
Well I can't deny I like the looks of the A350. Other than this, Boeings are by far more pleasing.
williambaker08
william baker 2
I am with him. The issue here is the A350 hasn't yet had any teething problems. Either Airbus got there head screwed on right which I highly doubt or there is going to be a major issue with this plane just like the A380. Had it not been for that many pilots on that flight that day that plane was doomed but they all used there heads and brought it back safety. Give Airbus some more time and the A350 will have some issue. I will stick with Boeing. At least a small fire can still give you time to land and get off the aircraft then losing almost all the flight controls.
nicoarreman
Nico Arreman 0
Brad, you can not say, an Airbus A380 is twice as large as a Boeing 777 so the heating is the same. The Airbus A320 is 16 centimeters wider than the Boeing 737 and thus the seats are 1 inch (2.6cm) wider.
+ The climb is much faster and faster in the noise zone and compentietie is very important for new developments.
preacher1
preacher1 2
One primary difference is that the 777 can go anywhere. The 380 can't. That is evidenced that they have bridged the gap to the 777X and have an order backlog, while Airbus only has 1 customer for the 380 and he is bad flakey. I personally think the 380 will go the way of the 340. Twins are going to rule, no matter what brand.
nicoarreman
Nico Arreman 1
think also. it is easier to fly with smaller planes en frequently. everybody wants fly when thy won and not wanted too a plane is completed

Login

Don't have an account? Register now (free) for customized features, flight alerts, and more!